Executive Summary

Q2 2025 revenue was $8.51M (+126% YoY), GAAP gross margin 29.6% (+180 bps YoY), but Adjusted EBITDA loss was $(13.65)M, a modest YoY improvement; GAAP net loss was $(34.9)M and Diluted EPS was $(0.22) .
Backlog expanded sharply: quarter-end backlog $682M, and “current contract revenue backlog” rose to $954M (+47% vs Q1; +120% YTD), underpinning medium-term visibility .
The company entered an exclusivity agreement for a $300M preferred equity investment to launch Asset Vault, targeting 1.5GW of owned storage projects and $100M+ in recurring project-level EBITDA in 3–4 years; preferred equity is non-dilutive to common shareholders .
FY2025 revenue guidance was narrowed to $200–$250M (from $200–$300M previously); cash at end-Q3 guided to $60–$75M, with $17.8M Cross Trails project financing closed in July and ~$27M net ITC proceeds anticipated in September .
Near-term stock narrative catalysts: Asset Vault financing close and Investor Day, rapid backlog ramp, and CPUC approval enabling market participation for Calistoga microgrid (new revenue streams) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Backlog acceleration: current contract revenue backlog climbed to $954M (+47% QoQ; +120% YTD), adding Consumers Energy projects, LTSA, and offtake agreements in U.S. and Australia .
- Strategic financing and owned-asset scale: $300M preferred equity (non-dilutive) to fund 1.5GW in Asset Vault, targeting $100M+ recurring EBITDA in 3–4 years; owned assets (Cross Trails, Calistoga) now in service, expected ~$10M recurring annual EBITDA .
- Cash execution: quarter-end cash rose 23% QoQ to $58.1M (incl. restricted), with $17.8M project financing closed in July and ~$27M ITC proceeds expected in September .
- CEO tone on execution: “We deliver… managing supply chains, building, commissioning, and reliably and safely executing projects” .
- CPUC approval for Calistoga to participate in CAISO markets, unlocking new revenue streams; integration of AI-powered Vault-Bidder for optimized dispatch .
What Went Wrong
- Top-line softness vs Street: Q2 revenue $8.51M, far below S&P consensus $30.57M driven by timing of U.S. battery deliveries and tariff-related pauses; EPS of $(0.22) missed consensus $(0.08) (*Values retrieved from S&P Global) .
- Adjusted net loss widened YoY to $(18.40)M (from $(13.92)M) due to credit loss provision and other adjustments despite improved gross margin .
- Gross margin compressed sequentially (57.1% in Q1 → 29.6% in Q2) as mix shifted away from the high-margin India license recognized in Q1 .

Financial Results

Metric	Q2 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$3.77	$8.53	$8.51
Diluted EPS ($)	$(0.18)	$(0.14)	$(0.22)
GAAP Gross Margin %	27.8%	57.1%	29.6%
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$(15.35)	$(11.27)	$(13.65)

Estimates vs Actuals (Q2 2025)

Metric	S&P Consensus	Actual
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$30.57*	$8.51
Primary EPS ($)	$(0.08)*	$(0.22)
EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$(10.30)*	$(13.65)

Note: *Values retrieved from S&P Global. Low # of estimates (Revenue: 2; EPS: 1) increases modeling uncertainty.

KPIs and Operating Metrics

KPI	Q4 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Backlog ($USD Millions) – Quarter-end	$660	$648	$682
Backlog ($USD Millions) – As of press date	—	—	$954
Cash (incl. restricted) ($USD Millions)	$30.07	$47.16	$58.10
Adjusted Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)	$16.07 (Q4)	$16.20 (Q1)	$16.20 (Q2)
Owned-assets Recurring EBITDA (run-rate)	—	~$30M for first 3 projects (forward)	~$10M current (Cross Trails + Calistoga)

Qualitative revenue mix notes: Q2 revenue driven by Australia project delivery and commencement of Cross Trails (Texas); Q1 benefited from high-margin India license .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Revenue	FY 2025	$200–$300M	$200–$250M	Lowered top-end
Total Cash	End-Q3 2025	$60–$75M	$60–$75M (incl. $18M Cross Trails financing closed; ~$27M net ITC anticipated)	Maintained
Adjusted OpEx Run-Rate	2H 2025	$12–$14M per quarter target	Additional $6.5M annualized cost savings implemented (supports run-rate)	Tightened cost base

Management also plans a Virtual Investor Day post-preferred close to detail Asset Vault pipeline, financials, and accounting .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q4 2024 and Q1 2025)	Current Period (Q2 2025)	Trend
Build-Own-Operate (Asset Ownership)	Framed 6 projects, 840MW decision control; recurring EBITDA vision	$300M preferred to launch Asset Vault; 1.5GW, $100M+ recurring EBITDA in 3–4 years	Accelerating
Supply chain, tariffs	U.S.–China tariff volatility impacted bookings; pause created wait-and-see, but guidance reiterated	Expect larger U.S. battery deliveries in Q4; tariff dispute absorbed; diversified sourcing	Stabilizing/managed
Regional momentum (Australia)	2.6 GWh under construction/development; Stoney Creek LTESA	Stoney Creek acquisition completed; ~$20M annual EBITDA from 2027	Strengthening
Regulatory approvals	Calistoga commissioning; financing expectations	CPUC approval for CAISO market participation; LGIA executed	Monetization unlocked
Financing execution	Calistoga project financing expected; cash rebuild plan	Cross Trails $17.8M financing closed; $27M net ITC expected Sept	Delivering
Technology/AI	VaultOS/Vault-Bidder stack referenced	Vault-Bidder AI dispatch highlighted for CRC market services	Operationalizing

Management Commentary

CEO on Asset Vault and execution: “This now becomes about execution… we are excellent at execution. We deliver. That's managing supply chains, building, commissioning, and reliably and safely executing projects” .
CEO on backlog momentum: “Contract revenue… increasing again quarter over quarter 47% to… $954,000,000 versus Q1 and up 120% year to date” .
CFO on FY outlook: “Estimating full year 2025 revenue of between $200,000,000 and $250,000,000… battery deliveries associated with the Consumers Energy projects… Q4” .
CFO on Asset Vault economics: “Two assets are expected to generate nearly $10,000,000 in recurring annual EBITDA… Stoney Creek… roughly $20,000,000 in annual recurring EBITDA… accelerating our path to $100,000,000 in recurring EBITDA goal over the next three to four years” .

Q&A Highlights

Preferred equity structure: Management deferred specific terms to Investor Day; indicated project IRRs adequately support financing/distributions .
Project capital stack: Illustrative split for $100M project—~50% project debt, 30–40% ITC, ~20% equity across common and preferred .
Exclusivity scope: Preferred financing exclusivity pertains to Asset Vault projects only .
Development pipeline status/timelines: ~1GW targeted COD in 2027; Australia weighted; DA approvals and RTB sequencing in late 2025/early 2026 .
Parent-company cash/margins from Asset Vault: Energy Vault self-performs EPC and LTSA for Asset Vault, adding high-margin service streams and management fees to parent cash flows .

Estimates Context

Q2 2025 shortfalls vs S&P consensus: Revenue $8.51M vs $30.57M*, EPS $(0.22) vs $(0.08), and Adj. EBITDA $(13.65)M vs $(10.30)M; drivers include timing of U.S. battery deliveries and tariff-related pauses, with deliveries pushed to Q4 and mix shift away from high-margin license revenue .
Forward consensus indicates a ramp in Q3/FY (Revenue Q3 ~$33.99M*, FY2025 ~$191.24M*), consistent with company guidance and expected Q4 deliveries; note low estimate counts (Revenue: 2; EPS: 1) increases uncertainty (*Values retrieved from S&P Global).

Key Takeaways for Investors

Backlog expansion and Asset Vault financing visibility materially improve medium-term earnings quality via recurring EBITDA and service margins .
Near-term revenue is lumpy; expect Q4 ramp with U.S. battery deliveries and owned asset monetization (Calistoga CAISO participation, Cross Trails ERCOT) .
Cost discipline continues: $6.5M annualized OpEx reduction implemented; adjusted OpEx run-rate targets support narrowing losses .
Watch for preferred equity close (30–60 days) and Virtual Investor Day for detailed Asset Vault accounting, pipeline, and cash flow maps—likely a narrative catalyst .
Australia remains a strategic growth vector with government-backed offtakes (Stoney Creek LTESA), de-risking financing and enhancing cash flow predictability .
Model risk remains high given low analyst coverage; reconcile Street estimates with company’s timing sensitivities and backlog conversion trajectory (*Values retrieved from S&P Global).
Medium-term thesis: transition from episodic EPC to hybrid model with recurring asset-level EBITDA plus EPC/LTSA margins—improves durability of cash flows and valuation multiples .

Sources: Q2 2025 8-K and press release ; Q2 2025 call transcript ; CPUC/CAISO press release ; Cross Trails financing ; Q1 2025 8-K/call ; Q4 2024 8-K .

Energy Vault Holdings, Inc. (NRGV)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary